The Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu have always been swept by one of the two major alliances since 2004, barring 2009 when the state delivered a split verdict with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies winning 27 of the 39 seats while its rival coalition, led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) winning the rest.
With the state’s 39 seats going to the polls on April 19, there are signs that the electoral battle may again be headed for a similar “one-sided” mandate. However, there seems to be some difference this time. Though the ruling DMK seems to be in the pole position just like in 2019, when the alliance led by it bagged 38 seats in a landslide, the party faces a strong resistance in some regions from its traditional rival AIADMK and also from the BJP-led NDA in a few seats.
In the 2014 polls, the AIADMK-led alliance had won 37 seats in the state. In 2004, the DMK-led front had swept the polls, winning all the seats.
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In this election, the DMK is also facing a tough fight in some of those seats where the AIADMK – which severed ties with the NDA in September last year and is contesting the polls alone – has seemingly fielded weak nominees while the BJP-led alliance has named strong candidates. A notable exception in this regard is the Coimbatore seat, where both the DMK and the AIADMK seem to be working overtime in a bid to counter the challenge posed by state BJP chief K Annamalai, who is seen to be putting up a strong fight and enjoys visibility like no other state leader from his party.
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The prominent NDA faces who are likely to give their rivals a run for their money include the BJP’s Nainar Nagendran in Tirunelveli, Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK) founder and BJP candidate A C Shanmugam in Vellore, BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan in Kanyakumari, T T V Dhinakaran of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) in Theni and O Panneerselvam, who is contesting from Ramananthapuram as an Independent with the NDA’s backing.
The AIADMK, on the other hand, is likely to fiercely counter the DMK in its stronghold of Western Tamil Nadu. Dharmapuri may especially be headed for a photo finish as Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) leader and former Union minister Anbumani Ramadoss’s wife Soumya is in the fray as an NDA candidate. The PMK, which is seen to hold sway among the OBC Vanniyar voters, may influence the eventual outcome of the result here.
The BJP, on the other hand, is optimistic of its prospects in Theni and Coimbatore, which along with Dharmapuri and Tirupur, were the four seats flagged by the DMK leadership for “special focus” in the last four days of the campaign.
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Despite its dismal show in the 2019 elections in the state, the BJP is hopeful of improving its vote share from the 3.6% it garnered five years ago while failing to open its account.
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As various independent assessments predict that the BJP may get 10-15% of the votes this time, Annamalai claims that this figure would go higher. The BJP seems to have taken a cue from Captain Vijayakanth, whose Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) made its debut and contested all 238 seats in the 2006 Assembly polls alone while winning one and securing a 8.5% vote share.
Meanwhile, the AIADMK insiders are upbeat about the party’s chances in seats like Kallakurichi, Namakkal, Pollachi, and Tiruppur.
Despite the AIADMK and the NDA intensifying their campaigns in the last leg, the DMK remains confident of sailing through even as it stares at close contests in the above-mentioned constituencies. While acknowledging this challenge, DMK sources admit that their concerns are primarily about “potential narrow wins”, particularly in seats like Tiruppur and Dharmapuri.
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However, the DMK’s confidence, sources say, stems from the party’s “successful steering” of its alliance since 2018. A senior DMK minister, on the condition of anonymity, says the credit for acting as the alliance’s glue must be given to Chief Minister and DMK supremo M K Stalin, who has led the coalition through the 2019 Lok Sabha, 2021 Assembly and 2022 local body polls. The DMK leads the alliance comprising the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and the Left Front.
DMK insiders also claim that the party’s confidence is further bolstered by the “successful political accommodation” of allies initiated by Stalin. Prominent leaders like senior Congress leader P Chidambaram and Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) chief Kamal Haasan have been promised the Rajya Sabha berths, sources say.
Stalin also reportedly put the alliance unity at the front when he agreed to let VCK founder Thol Thirumavalavan and MDMK leader Vaiko’s son Durai contest on their own symbols. Sources said Stalin gave in even while being aware that their chances of winning increased manifold if they contested on the DMK’s “rising sun” symbol.
Similarly, despite losing all the three seats it contested in the 2021 Assembly polls, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has reportedly been “allowed to retain its identity” to ensure the alliance stays intact.
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A senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leader, who is overseeing the BJP’s campaign in Western Tamil Nadu, admitted that Tamil Nadu is likely to be a “significant contributor” to the Opposition INDIA alliance’s national tally, adding that the BJP’s focus is mainly on increasing its vote share. “Had it been the Olympics, I would have termed Tamil Nadu as the torchbearer of the INDIA bloc,” he said.
